Ohio State vs. Missouri score prediction by college football expert model

Ohio State vs. Missouri score prediction by college football expert model
Expert score predictions for Ohio State vs. Missouri in the 2023 Cotton Bowl
One of the pleasures of the college football bowl season is the advantage to see a good Big Ten vs. SEC matchup on the field, and this postseason won't disappoint as the 2023 Cotton Bowl game brings us a clash between two ranked teams as Ohio State faces off against resurgent Missouri on Friday night.

Missouri was the third-best team in the SEC this season, winning 10 games thanks to a skilled offensive unit led by quarterback Brady Cook, receiver Luther Burden, and award-winning tailback Cody Schrader. Ohio State lost a third-straight game to Michigan this year and missed out on the College Football Playoff, and loses a ton of key production coming into the bowl game.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's take a look at how the SP+ prediction model projects the game.

Ohio State vs. Missouri prediction
The simulations favor Ohio State to win the game in a close result.

SP+ estimates that the Buckeyes will defeat the Tigers by a projected score of 29 to 21 and to win the game by an expected 8.9 points.

The model gives OSU a 70 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread
In a line that has gone back and forth since the open, the latest point spread finds Ohio State as 5 point favorites against Missouri, according to SI Sportsbook.

SI listed the total at 50.5 points, the ML for Ohio State at -210 and for Mizzou at +175.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

Ohio State -5
OSU to win -210
Bet under 50.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic tools also favor the Buckeyes to win the Cotton Bowl.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index suggests that Ohio State will win the game in 75.9 percent of its simulations, while Missouri comes out the projected winner in the remaining 24.1 percent of sims.

By taking each team's scoring margin per game into account, the computer projects that Ohio State will defeat Missouri by 12.5 points, enough to cover the line.

College Football HQ picks: Ohio State vs. Missouri in the 2023 Cotton Bowl game

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2023 Cotton Bowl game time
When: Fri., Dec. 29
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.

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